The Concrete Index.
Analysis

Two decades of demand, in one number.

The Concrete Index condenses the City's construction award record into a single composite measure, then digs into the patterns underneath: when the City buys, how project budgets grow, and how fast the pipeline converts.

Computing from the public record…

Computing two decades of award history and three capital plan snapshots…

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The Concrete Index
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vs year ago
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composite demand, new awards
Next in line
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unspent $ in construction procurement, nearest-term award supply
Budget escalation
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The Concrete Index, 2004 → today

Composite of trailing-twelve-month new-award value and award count, megaprojects excluded, 2019 average = 100. One line for the demand cycle: the GFC, the 2010s build-up, COVID, and the current correction.

When the City buys

Typical share of annual new-award value by month, 2004–2025. 1.0× = an average month.

How the pipeline converts

PhaseProjects trackedAdvancedHeld in phase

How project budgets grow

Methodology & definitions

The Concrete Index

For each month since 2004, the index combines trailing-twelve-month value and trailing-twelve-month count of new construction awards (renewals and extensions excluded by selection method; awards of $500M and above excluded so single megaprojects don't move the cycle reading). The two components are expressed relative to their 2019 averages and blended geometrically; 2019 = 100. Dollars are nominal; the index reads demand activity rather than inflation-adjusted volume.

Seasonality

For each complete calendar year, each month's share of that year's new-award value is computed; the profile shows the median share across years, scaled so 1.0 equals an average month. Medians keep single unusual years from distorting the profile.

Pipeline conversion

Projects are matched across consecutive capital plan snapshots (roughly four months apart) by agency and FMS ID, pooled over the two most recent transitions. A project "advances" when its delivery phase moves forward in the sequence pending → pre-design → design → procurement → construction → close-out. Projects that leave the dataset between snapshots are not counted.

Budget escalation

Projects present in both the earliest available plan snapshot (May 2023) and the most recent one, with budgets above $1M in both, are matched by agency and FMS ID. Escalation is each project's total-budget growth across that span; the headline figure is the median. Budget growth blends scope changes with cost escalation. The public record doesn't separate the two, so neither does this page.

Sources

Award history: City Record Recent Contract Awards (qyyg-4tf5), 2003→present. Capital plan: Capital Projects Dashboard (fb86-vt7u), snapshots May 2023→present. Both on NYC Open Data, queried live on every page load.